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Scotland Mabvuku vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

Scotland Mabvuku
Scotland Mabvuku
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yadah
Yadah
7/28/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Scotland Mabvuku54%
×Draw28%
Yadah17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland Mabvuku
1.35
Yadah
0.63

Scotland Mabvuku creates 114% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 85 away

creates per match

Scotland Mabvuku
1.37
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

Scotland Mabvuku
0.44
Yadah
1.34

finishing

Scotland Mabvuku+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland Mabvuku ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Scotland Mabvuku or draw
83%
Scotland Mabvuku or Yadah
72%
Draw or Yadah
46%

Winning margin

Scotland Mabvuku wins by 2+
27%
Yadah wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Scotland Mabvuku 1+ goals
74%
Scotland Mabvuku 2+ goals
39%
Scotland Mabvuku 3+ goals
15%
Yadah 1+ goals
47%
Yadah 2+ goals
13%
Yadah 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Scotland Mabvuku (draw refunded)
76%
Yadah (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland Mabvuku at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland Mabvuku attack 1.37 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Yadah attack 0.82 + Scotland Mabvuku defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Scotland Mabvuku scores more
54%
level
28%
Yadah scores more
17%

Scotland Mabvuku at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Scotland Mabvuku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Scotland Mabvuku 1–0 Yadah

Scotland Mabvuku beat Yadah 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on July 28, 2025.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.