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Yadah vs Manica Diamonds — Premier Soccer League 2026

Yadah
Yadah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Manica Diamonds
Manica Diamonds
10/19/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 28Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Yadah40%
×Draw32%
Manica Diamonds27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadah
1.04
Manica Diamonds
0.80

Yadah creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 96 away

creates per match

Yadah
0.98
Manica Diamonds
0.69

allows per match

Yadah
0.91
Manica Diamonds
1.09

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par
Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Manica Diamonds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Yadah or draw
73%
Yadah or Manica Diamonds
68%
Draw or Manica Diamonds
60%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+
16%
Manica Diamonds wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals
65%
Yadah 2+ goals
28%
Yadah 3+ goals
9%
Manica Diamonds 1+ goals
55%
Manica Diamonds 2+ goals
19%
Manica Diamonds 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)
60%
Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Manica Diamonds away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Manica Diamonds defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Manica Diamonds attack 0.69 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yadah scores more
40%
level
32%
Manica Diamonds scores more
27%

Yadah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yadah vs Manica Diamonds

Yadah and Manica Diamonds drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 19, 2023.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.