Manica Diamonds 1–0 Yadah: Result & Stats

Manica Diamonds

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Yadah

3/1/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 1Sakubva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Manica Diamonds48%

×Draw30%

Yadah21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manica DiamondsExpected goals in this matchYadah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.70

Manica Diamonds

1.21

Yadah

0.70

Manica Diamonds creates 73% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 85 away

1.07

creates per match

0.82

0.58

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Manica Diamonds

1.07

Yadah

0.82

allows per match

Manica Diamonds

0.58

Yadah

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manica Diamonds+0.00on par

Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manica Diamonds ↓

Yadah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Manica Diamonds or draw

79%

Manica Diamonds or Yadah

70%

Draw or Yadah

52%

Winning margin

Manica Diamonds wins by 2+

22%

Yadah wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Manica Diamonds 1+ goals

70%

Manica Diamonds 2+ goals

34%

Manica Diamonds 3+ goals

12%

Yadah 1+ goals

50%

Yadah 2+ goals

16%

Yadah 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Manica Diamonds (draw refunded)

69%

Yadah (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manica Diamonds at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.58 · 96 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manica Diamonds attack 1.07 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Yadah attack 0.82 + Manica Diamonds defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Manica Diamonds scores more

48%

level

30%

Yadah scores more

21%

Manica Diamonds at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Manica Diamonds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff