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Yacoub El Mansour vs Rapide Oued ZEM — Botola 2 2025

Yacoub El Mansour
Yacoub El Mansour
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
5/14/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 29Stade Yacoub-El-Mansour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yacoub El Mansour53%
×Draw24%
Rapide Oued ZEM23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yacoub El Mansour
1.67
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.02

Yacoub El Mansour creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Yacoub El Mansour
2.20
Rapide Oued ZEM
0.91

allows per match

Yacoub El Mansour
1.13
Rapide Oued ZEM
1.13

finishing

Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par
Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yacoub El Mansour ↓

Rapide Oued ZEM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Yacoub El Mansour or draw
77%
Yacoub El Mansour or Rapide Oued ZEM
76%
Draw or Rapide Oued ZEM
47%

Winning margin

Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+
28%
Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals
81%
Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals
50%
Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals
23%
Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
64%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
27%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)
69%
Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yacoub El Mansour at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Rapide Oued ZEM away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yacoub El Mansour attack 2.20 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 0.91 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yacoub El Mansour scores more
53%
level
24%
Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
23%

Yacoub El Mansour at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yacoub El Mansour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Yacoub El Mansour 3–1 Rapide Oued ZEM

Yacoub El Mansour beat Rapide Oued ZEM 3-1 in Botola 2 on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Yacoub-El-Mansour in Rabat.