Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rapide Oued ZEM vs Yacoub El Mansour — Botola 2 2025

Rapide Oued ZEM
Rapide Oued ZEM
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yacoub El Mansour
Yacoub El Mansour
1/12/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 14Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rapide Oued ZEM39%
×Draw31%
Yacoub El Mansour30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.07
Yacoub El Mansour
0.91

Rapide Oued ZEM creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
1.07
Yacoub El Mansour
1.00

allows per match

Rapide Oued ZEM
0.82
Yacoub El Mansour
1.07

finishing

Rapide Oued ZEM+0.00on par
Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapide Oued ZEM ↓

Yacoub El Mansour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rapide Oued ZEM or draw
70%
Rapide Oued ZEM or Yacoub El Mansour
69%
Draw or Yacoub El Mansour
61%

Winning margin

Rapide Oued ZEM wins by 2+
16%
Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rapide Oued ZEM 1+ goals
66%
Rapide Oued ZEM 2+ goals
29%
Rapide Oued ZEM 3+ goals
9%
Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals
60%
Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals
23%
Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rapide Oued ZEM (draw refunded)
56%
Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapide Oued ZEM at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.82 · 44 matches

Yacoub El Mansour away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapide Oued ZEM attack 1.07 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Yacoub El Mansour attack 1.00 + Rapide Oued ZEM defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rapide Oued ZEM scores more
39%
level
31%
Yacoub El Mansour scores more
30%

Rapide Oued ZEM at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rapide Oued ZEM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapide Oued ZEM vs Yacoub El Mansour

Rapide Oued ZEM beat Yacoub El Mansour 3-1 in Botola 2 on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Zem.