Yacoub El Mansour vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 15+ matches
Yacoub El Mansour41%
Kawkab Marrakech32%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Yacoub El Mansour creates 17% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Yacoub El Mansour ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Yacoub El Mansour at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches
Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Yacoub El Mansour attack 1.33 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34
Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.76 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Yacoub El Mansour at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Yacoub El Mansour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Yacoub El Mansour substitutes
Wydad AC
Raja Casablanca
Hassania Agadir
Olympique Safi
Ittihad Tanger
Youssoufia Berrechid
Difaa EL Jadida
Renaissance Berkane
FUS Rabat
Rapide Oued ZEM
Mouloudia Oujda
Moghreb Tetouan
FAR Rabat
Olympique KhouribgaKawkab Marrakech
Chabab RIF HoceimaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Yacoub El Mansour host Kawkab Marrakech on Monday, 11 May 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Botola Pro 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Yacoub El Mansour vs Kawkab Marrakech
Yacoub El Mansour beat Kawkab Marrakech 2-1 in Botola Pro on May 11, 2026.
Goals: M. Balouk (45', 73'), I. Badri (76' o.g.).
The match was played at Stade Olympique de Rabat in Rabat.