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Yacoub El Mansour vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Yacoub El Mansour
Yacoub El Mansour
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
I. Mansouri 90+6'
J. El Khfiyef 83'
M. Balouk 64'
T. Al Achbili 73'
1/18/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 15Stade Yacoub-El-Mansour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yacoub El Mansour53%
×Draw25%
Kawkab Marrakech22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yacoub El Mansour
1.60
Kawkab Marrakech
0.95

Yacoub El Mansour creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

creates per match

Yacoub El Mansour
2.20
Kawkab Marrakech
0.78

allows per match

Yacoub El Mansour
1.13
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yacoub El Mansour ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yacoub El Mansour or draw
78%
Yacoub El Mansour or Kawkab Marrakech
75%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
47%

Winning margin

Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+
28%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals
80%
Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals
47%
Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals
22%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
61%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
25%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)
70%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yacoub El Mansour at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yacoub El Mansour attack 2.20 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.60

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.78 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yacoub El Mansour scores more
53%
level
25%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
22%

Yacoub El Mansour at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yacoub El Mansour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'
M. Balouk
73'
T. Al Achbili
83'
J. El Khfiyef
90+6'
I. Mansouri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yacoub El Mansour vs Kawkab Marrakech

Yacoub El Mansour beat Kawkab Marrakech 3-1 in Botola 2 on January 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Balouk (64'), T. Al Achbili (73'), J. El Khfiyef (83'), I. Mansouri (90+6').

The match was played at Stade Yacoub-El-Mansour in Rabat.