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Yacoub El Mansour vs KAC Kenitra — Botola 2 2025

Yacoub El Mansour
Yacoub El Mansour
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
M. El Yaqoubi 70'
Unknown 30'
1/8/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 13Stade Yacoub-El-Mansour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yacoub El Mansour54%
×Draw24%
KAC Kenitra23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yacoub El Mansour
1.73
KAC Kenitra
1.03

Yacoub El Mansour creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

creates per match

Yacoub El Mansour
2.20
KAC Kenitra
0.93

allows per match

Yacoub El Mansour
1.13
KAC Kenitra
1.26

finishing

Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par
KAC Kenitra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yacoub El Mansour ↓

KAC Kenitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Yacoub El Mansour or draw
77%
Yacoub El Mansour or KAC Kenitra
76%
Draw or KAC Kenitra
46%

Winning margin

Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+
30%
KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals
82%
Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals
52%
Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals
25%
KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
64%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
28%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)
70%
KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yacoub El Mansour at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

KAC Kenitra away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yacoub El Mansour attack 2.20 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

KAC Kenitra attack 0.93 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yacoub El Mansour scores more
54%
level
24%
KAC Kenitra scores more
23%

Yacoub El Mansour at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yacoub El Mansour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
70'
M. El Yaqoubi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yacoub El Mansour vs KAC Kenitra

Yacoub El Mansour and KAC Kenitra drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on January 8, 2025.

Goals: ? (30'), M. El Yaqoubi (70').

The match was played at Stade Yacoub-El-Mansour in Rabat.