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KAC Kenitra vs Yacoub El Mansour — Botola 2 2025

KAC Kenitra
KAC Kenitra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yacoub El Mansour
Yacoub El Mansour
Unknown 55'
5/10/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 28Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

KAC Kenitra40%
×Draw29%
Yacoub El Mansour31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAC Kenitra
1.17
Yacoub El Mansour
1.00

KAC Kenitra creates 17% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

creates per match

KAC Kenitra
1.26
Yacoub El Mansour
1.00

allows per match

KAC Kenitra
1.00
Yacoub El Mansour
1.07

finishing

KAC Kenitra+0.00on par
Yacoub El Mansour+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAC Kenitra ↓

Yacoub El Mansour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAC Kenitra or draw
69%
KAC Kenitra or Yacoub El Mansour
71%
Draw or Yacoub El Mansour
60%

Winning margin

KAC Kenitra wins by 2+
17%
Yacoub El Mansour wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KAC Kenitra 1+ goals
69%
KAC Kenitra 2+ goals
33%
KAC Kenitra 3+ goals
11%
Yacoub El Mansour 1+ goals
63%
Yacoub El Mansour 2+ goals
26%
Yacoub El Mansour 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KAC Kenitra (draw refunded)
56%
Yacoub El Mansour (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAC Kenitra at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Yacoub El Mansour away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAC Kenitra attack 1.26 + Yacoub El Mansour defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Yacoub El Mansour attack 1.00 + KAC Kenitra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KAC Kenitra scores more
40%
level
29%
Yacoub El Mansour scores more
31%

KAC Kenitra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KAC Kenitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KAC Kenitra vs Yacoub El Mansour

KAC Kenitra beat Yacoub El Mansour 1-0 in Botola 2 on May 10, 2025.

Goals: ? (55').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.