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XV de Piracicaba vs São José EC — League #476 2026

XV de Piracicaba
XV de Piracicaba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
São José EC
São José EC
2/3/2024League #476League #476 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Barão de Serra Negra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

XV de Piracicaba14%
×Draw38%
São José EC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Piracicaba
0.35
São José EC
0.93

São José EC creates 166% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba
0.20
São José EC
1.25

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba
0.60
São José EC
0.50

finishing

XV de Piracicaba+0.00on par
São José EC+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Under
  • Under86
  • Over14

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

82%No
  • No82
  • Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba ↓

São José EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–028%
0–126%
0–212%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (28%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
72%28%1.5
37%63%2.5
14%86%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba or draw
51%
XV de Piracicaba or São José EC
62%
Draw or São José EC
86%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba wins by 2+
2%
São José EC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba 1+ goals
30%
XV de Piracicaba 2+ goals
5%
XV de Piracicaba 3+ goals
1%
São José EC 1+ goals
61%
São José EC 2+ goals
24%
São José EC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba (draw refunded)
22%
São José EC (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba at home — creates 0.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

São José EC away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba attack 0.20 + São José EC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.35

São José EC attack 1.25 + XV de Piracicaba defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

XV de Piracicaba scores more
14%
level
38%
São José EC scores more
49%

São José EC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "São José EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Piracicaba vs São José EC

XV de Piracicaba and São José EC drew 0-0 in League #476 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Barão de Serra Negra in Piracicaba, São Paulo.