São José EC 2–0 XV de Piracicaba: Result & Stats

São José EC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

XV de Piracicaba

2/26/2025

League #476 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Municipal Dr. Mário Martins Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São José EC59%

×Draw24%

XV de Piracicaba18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São José ECExpected goals in this matchXV de Piracicaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.83

São José EC

1.73

XV de Piracicaba

0.83

São José EC creates 108% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.67

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

São José EC

2.67

XV de Piracicaba

1.00

allows per match

São José EC

0.67

XV de Piracicaba

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São José EC+0.00on par

XV de Piracicaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São José EC ↓

XV de Piracicaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

São José EC or draw

82%

São José EC or XV de Piracicaba

76%

Draw or XV de Piracicaba

41%

Winning margin

São José EC wins by 2+

33%

XV de Piracicaba wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

São José EC 1+ goals

82%

São José EC 2+ goals

52%

São José EC 3+ goals

25%

XV de Piracicaba 1+ goals

56%

XV de Piracicaba 2+ goals

20%

XV de Piracicaba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

São José EC (draw refunded)

77%

XV de Piracicaba (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São José EC at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

XV de Piracicaba away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São José EC attack 2.67 + XV de Piracicaba defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

XV de Piracicaba attack 1.00 + São José EC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

São José EC scores more

59%

level

24%

XV de Piracicaba scores more

18%

São José EC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "São José EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff