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XV de Novembro U20 vs Cruzeiro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cruzeiro U20
Cruzeiro U20
Pablo Santos 45+5'
6/14/2025Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Bezerrão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

XV de Novembro U2019%
×Draw22%
Cruzeiro U2059%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Novembro U20
0.97
Cruzeiro U20
1.88

Cruzeiro U20 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

creates per match

XV de Novembro U20
0.58
Cruzeiro U20
2.09

allows per match

XV de Novembro U20
1.67
Cruzeiro U20
1.35

finishing

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par
Cruzeiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Novembro U20 ↓

Cruzeiro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

XV de Novembro U20 or draw
41%
XV de Novembro U20 or Cruzeiro U20
78%
Draw or Cruzeiro U20
81%

Winning margin

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
7%
Cruzeiro U20 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
62%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
25%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
7%
Cruzeiro U20 1+ goals
85%
Cruzeiro U20 2+ goals
56%
Cruzeiro U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
25%
Cruzeiro U20 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Novembro U20 at home — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Cruzeiro U20 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.58 + Cruzeiro U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.97

Cruzeiro U20 attack 2.09 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

XV de Novembro U20 scores more
19%
level
22%
Cruzeiro U20 scores more
59%

Cruzeiro U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cruzeiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
45+5'
Pablo Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: XV de Novembro U20 vs Cruzeiro U20

Cruzeiro U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 1-0 in Mineiro U20 on June 14, 2025.

Goals: Pablo Santos (45+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bezerrão in Crucilândia, Minas Gerais.