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Cruzeiro U20 vs XV de Novembro U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

Cruzeiro U20
Cruzeiro U20
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
XV de Novembro U20
XV de Novembro U20
K. Kaique 90+8'
Arthur Viana 90+6' (pen)
Tevis 89'
Gui Meira 81'
C. Augusto 45+3'
7/20/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cruzeiro U2085%
×Draw10%
XV de Novembro U206%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro U20
3.46
XV de Novembro U20
0.83

Cruzeiro U20 creates 317% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro U20
3.83
XV de Novembro U20
0.92

allows per match

Cruzeiro U20
0.74
XV de Novembro U20
3.08

finishing

Cruzeiro U20+0.00on par
XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro U20 ↓

XV de Novembro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Cruzeiro U20 or draw
94%
Cruzeiro U20 or XV de Novembro U20
90%
Draw or XV de Novembro U20
15%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro U20 wins by 2+
68%
XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cruzeiro U20 1+ goals
97%
Cruzeiro U20 2+ goals
85%
Cruzeiro U20 3+ goals
65%
XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals
56%
XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals
20%
XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro U20 (draw refunded)
94%
XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro U20 at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.74 · 23 matches

XV de Novembro U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro U20 attack 3.83 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 3.46

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.92 + Cruzeiro U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Cruzeiro U20 scores more
85%
level
10%
XV de Novembro U20 scores more
6%

Cruzeiro U20 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Cruzeiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'
C. Augusto
81'
Gui Meira
89'
Tevis
90+6'
Arthur VianaPenalty
90+8'
K. Kaique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cruzeiro U20 4 – 1 XV de Novembro U20

Cruzeiro U20 beat XV de Novembro U20 4-1 in Mineiro U20 on July 20, 2024.

Goals: C. Augusto (45+3'), Gui Meira (81'), Tevis (89'), Arthur Viana (90+6' pen), K. Kaique (90+8').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Toca da Raposa I in Belo Horizonte - Minas Gerais.