XV de Jaú U20 8–0 CA Taquaritinga U20

XV de Jaú U20

FT

8 – 0

CA Taquaritinga U20

4/12/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Zezinho Magalhães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

XV de Jaú U2089%

×Draw7%

CA Taquaritinga U203%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Jaú U20Expected goals in this matchCA Taquaritinga U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.97

0.75

XV de Jaú U20

3.97

CA Taquaritinga U20

0.75

XV de Jaú U20 creates 429% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

1.74

creates per match

0.20

1.30

allows per match

6.20

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.74

CA Taquaritinga U20

0.20

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20

1.30

CA Taquaritinga U20

6.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

CA Taquaritinga U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

CA Taquaritinga U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw

97%

XV de Jaú U20 or CA Taquaritinga U20

93%

Draw or CA Taquaritinga U20

11%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+

76%

CA Taquaritinga U20 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals

98%

XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals

89%

XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals

73%

CA Taquaritinga U20 1+ goals

53%

CA Taquaritinga U20 2+ goals

17%

CA Taquaritinga U20 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)

96%

CA Taquaritinga U20 (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

CA Taquaritinga U20 away — creates 0.20, concedes 6.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + CA Taquaritinga U20 defence 6.20 → ÷2 → 3.97

CA Taquaritinga U20 attack 0.20 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more

89%

level

7%

CA Taquaritinga U20 scores more

3%

XV de Jaú U20 at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff