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CA Taquaritinga U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

CA Taquaritinga U20
CA Taquaritinga U20
FT
0 – 9
XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
5/17/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CA Taquaritinga U208%
×Draw15%
XV de Jaú U2077%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA Taquaritinga U20
0.65
XV de Jaú U20
2.48

XV de Jaú U20 creates 282% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

CA Taquaritinga U20
0.20
XV de Jaú U20
1.55

allows per match

CA Taquaritinga U20
3.40
XV de Jaú U20
1.09

finishing

CA Taquaritinga U20+0.00on par
XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 56Yes: 4456%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Taquaritinga U20 ↓

XV de Jaú U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–214%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CA Taquaritinga U20 or draw
23%
CA Taquaritinga U20 or XV de Jaú U20
85%
Draw or XV de Jaú U20
92%

Winning margin

CA Taquaritinga U20 wins by 2+
2%
XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

CA Taquaritinga U20 1+ goals
48%
CA Taquaritinga U20 2+ goals
14%
CA Taquaritinga U20 3+ goals
3%
XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
92%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
70%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

CA Taquaritinga U20 (draw refunded)
9%
XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Taquaritinga U20 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

XV de Jaú U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Taquaritinga U20 attack 0.20 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.65

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.55 + CA Taquaritinga U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

CA Taquaritinga U20 scores more
8%
level
15%
XV de Jaú U20 scores more
77%

XV de Jaú U20 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CA Taquaritinga U20 0 – 9 XV de Jaú U20

XV de Jaú U20 beat CA Taquaritinga U20 9-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Adail Nunes da Silva in Taquaritinga, São Paulo.