Xuan Thien Phu Tho 2–0 Ho Chi Minh: Result & Stats

Xuan Thien Phu Tho

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ho Chi Minh

R. Nji 49'

G. H. Tran 34' (pen)

3/1/2026

V.League 2 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Xuan Thien Phu Tho39%

×Draw25%

Ho Chi Minh37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xuan Thien Phu ThoExpected goals in this matchHo Chi Minh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.45

Xuan Thien Phu Tho

1.50

Ho Chi Minh

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

1.45

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Xuan Thien Phu Tho

1.64

Ho Chi Minh

1.45

allows per match

Xuan Thien Phu Tho

1.45

Ho Chi Minh

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xuan Thien Phu Tho+0.00on par

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xuan Thien Phu Tho ↓

Ho Chi Minh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Xuan Thien Phu Tho or draw

63%

Xuan Thien Phu Tho or Ho Chi Minh

75%

Draw or Ho Chi Minh

61%

Winning margin

Xuan Thien Phu Tho wins by 2+

19%

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Xuan Thien Phu Tho 1+ goals

78%

Xuan Thien Phu Tho 2+ goals

44%

Xuan Thien Phu Tho 3+ goals

19%

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

77%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

42%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Xuan Thien Phu Tho (draw refunded)

51%

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xuan Thien Phu Tho at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Ho Chi Minh away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xuan Thien Phu Tho attack 1.64 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.45 + Xuan Thien Phu Tho defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Xuan Thien Phu Tho scores more

39%

level

25%

Ho Chi Minh scores more

37%

Xuan Thien Phu Tho at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Xuan Thien Phu Tho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

G. H. TranPenalty

49'

R. Nji

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff