Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ho Chi Minh vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho — V.League 2 2020

Ho Chi Minh
Ho Chi Minh
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
J. Lynch 88', 79'
C. T. Nguyen 18'
Q. H. Le 84'
N. D. Dang 67'
R. Nji 39'
P. Duy Hao 26'
4/10/2026V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ho Chi Minh48%
×Draw26%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ho Chi Minh
1.50
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
1.04

Ho Chi Minh creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh
1.55
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
1.45

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh
0.64
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
1.45

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par
Xuan Thien Phu Tho+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Xuan Thien Phu Tho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw
74%
Ho Chi Minh or Xuan Thien Phu Tho
74%
Draw or Xuan Thien Phu Tho
52%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+
24%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals
78%
Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals
44%
Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals
19%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho 1+ goals
65%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho 2+ goals
28%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)
65%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Xuan Thien Phu Tho away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.55 + Xuan Thien Phu Tho defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Xuan Thien Phu Tho attack 1.45 + Ho Chi Minh defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more
48%
level
26%
Xuan Thien Phu Tho scores more
26%

Ho Chi Minh at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
C. T. Nguyen
26'
P. Duy Hao
39'
R. Nji
67'
N. D. Dang
79'
J. Lynch
84'
Q. H. Le
88'
J. Lynch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Ho Chi Minh 3–4 Xuan Thien Phu Tho

Xuan Thien Phu Tho beat Ho Chi Minh 4-3 in V.League 2 on April 10, 2026.

Goals: C. T. Nguyen (18'), P. Duy Hao (26'), R. Nji (39'), N. D. Dang (67'), J. Lynch (79', 88'), Q. H. Le (84').