Xorazm 2–0 Neftchi: Result & Stats | Super League

Xorazm

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Neftchi

M. Bobodzhonov 82'

A. Khusinov 2'

11/30/2025

Super League · Round 30Xorazm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xorazm25%

×Draw28%

Neftchi46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XorazmExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.32

Xorazm

0.90

Neftchi

1.32

Neftchi creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 61 away

1.00

creates per match

1.31

1.33

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Xorazm

1.00

Neftchi

1.31

allows per match

Xorazm

1.33

Neftchi

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Neftchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw

54%

Xorazm or Neftchi

72%

Draw or Neftchi

75%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+

9%

Neftchi wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals

59%

Xorazm 2+ goals

23%

Xorazm 3+ goals

6%

Neftchi 1+ goals

73%

Neftchi 2+ goals

38%

Neftchi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)

35%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Neftchi away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 1.00 + Neftchi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Neftchi attack 1.31 + Xorazm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Xorazm scores more

25%

level

28%

Neftchi scores more

46%

Neftchi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

A. Khusinov↳ D. Ezhov

6'

I. Shaykulov

9'

A. Khusinov

46'

I. Toshpulatov← I. Shaykulov

60'

S. Nematzhonov← Z. Marusic

62'

K. Ruziev

63'

J. Azimov

68'

M. Bobodzhonov← S. Samiev

68'

A. Saidkhonov← J. Azimov

74'

T. Ismoilov← D. Ezhov

76'

G. Gulyamov

81'

S. Abdullazhonov← A. Akhrorov

82'

M. Bobodzhonov↳ K. Tursunkulov

Xorazm

Neftchi

45

21

23

4

34

8

24

11

77

32

▼

Marusic

22

Odilov

1

Muhammadj

18

▼

Shaykulov

6

Otakhonov

2

Ortikboev

88

⚽

Khusinov

9

▼

Azimov

8

A

Tursunkul

11

Iminov

20

A

▼

Ezhov

99

▼

Samiev

79

▼

Akhrorov

46'▲I. Toshpulatov←▼I. Shaykulov

68'▲M. Bobodzhonov←▼S. Samiev

68'▲A. Saidkhonov←▼J. Azimov

74'▲T. Ismoilov←▼D. Ezhov

81'▲S. Abdullazhonov←▼A. Akhrorov

Xorazm substitutes

3Sultonov4Ibrokhimov7Ismoilov10Bobodzhonov12Kobulzhanov22Saidkhonov27Toshpulatov30Olimov77Abdullazhonov

60'▲S. Nematzhonov←▼Z. Marusic

Neftchi substitutes

1Ergashev10Iskanderov15Nematzhonov20Gofurov30Abdubannobov33Yoqubjonov47Toirjonov90Sharofiddinov