Neftchi 2–0 Xorazm: Result & Stats | Super League

Neftchi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xorazm

Z. Marusic 69'

T. Tabatadze 11'

7/7/2025

Super League · Round 15Istiqlol Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Neftchi47%

×Draw27%

Xorazm26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeftchiExpected goals in this matchXorazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.99

Neftchi

1.42

Xorazm

0.99

Neftchi creates 43% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 23 away

1.57

creates per match

1.04

0.95

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Neftchi

1.57

Xorazm

1.04

allows per match

Neftchi

0.95

Xorazm

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neftchi+0.00on par

Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neftchi ↓

Xorazm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Neftchi or draw

74%

Neftchi or Xorazm

73%

Draw or Xorazm

53%

Winning margin

Neftchi wins by 2+

23%

Xorazm wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Neftchi 1+ goals

76%

Neftchi 2+ goals

41%

Neftchi 3+ goals

17%

Xorazm 1+ goals

63%

Xorazm 2+ goals

26%

Xorazm 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Neftchi (draw refunded)

64%

Xorazm (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neftchi at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

Xorazm away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neftchi attack 1.57 + Xorazm defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.42

Xorazm attack 1.04 + Neftchi defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Neftchi scores more

47%

level

27%

Xorazm scores more

26%

Neftchi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Neftchi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

11'

31'

41'

46'

Z. Marusic← T. Tabatadze

56'

T. Ismoilov← S. Abdullazhonov

61'

I. Alibaev

63'

D. Juraev

66'

S. Samiev← M. Bobodzhonov

68'

T. Ismoilov

69'

Z. Marusic↳ J. Iskanderov

70'

Z. Marusic

71'

V. Jovovic← K. Ruziev

80'

F. Narh← I. Toshpulatov

80'

S. Shaakhmedov← J. Azimov

80'

A. Akhrorov← R. Abdukhamidov

90+4'

G. Gulyamov← B. Ciger

Neftchi

Xorazm

12

88

5

44

27

▼

Toshpulat

8

Tursunkul

9

▼

Azimov

77

▼

Abdullazh

11

Iminov

94

▼

Abdukhami

10

▼

Bobodzhon

1

Ergashev

6

Yuldoshev

4

▼

20

21

7

11

▼

Ruziev

5

Alibaev

23

Djokic

10

A

Iskandero

22

⚽

▼

Tabatadze

46'▲Z. Marusic←▼T. Tabatadze

71'▲V. Jovovic←▼K. Ruziev

90+4'▲G. Gulyamov←▼B. Ciger

Neftchi substitutes

33Yoqubjonov44Adahamjonov24Gulyamov45Turaev32Marusic14Boltaboev9Gadoev17Giyosov8Jovovic

56'▲T. Ismoilov←▼S. Abdullazhonov

66'▲S. Samiev←▼M. Bobodzhonov

80'▲F. Narh←▼I. Toshpulatov

80'▲S. Shaakhmedov←▼J. Azimov

80'▲A. Akhrorov←▼R. Abdukhamidov

Xorazm substitutes

13Mukhammadzhonov3Sultonov4Ibrokhimov7Ismoilov17Asadullaev18Narh99Samiev22Shaakhmedov79Akhrorov