Xorazm 2–1 Dinamo Samarqand: Result & Stats

Xorazm

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Samarqand

R. Yagudin 75' (OG)

A. Pirmukhamedov 44'

T. Mavretic 72'

4/3/2026

Super League · Round 5Xorazm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xorazm39%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Samarqand35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XorazmExpected goals in this matchDinamo Samarqand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.28

Xorazm

1.37

Dinamo Samarqand

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 62 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

1.33

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Xorazm

1.00

Dinamo Samarqand

1.23

allows per match

Xorazm

1.33

Dinamo Samarqand

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Dinamo Samarqand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw

65%

Xorazm or Dinamo Samarqand

74%

Draw or Dinamo Samarqand

61%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+

18%

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals

75%

Xorazm 2+ goals

40%

Xorazm 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

37%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)

53%

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Dinamo Samarqand away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 1.00 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.23 + Xorazm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Xorazm scores more

39%

level

26%

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

35%

Xorazm at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Xorazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

37'

44'

48'

56'

K. Khalilov← F. Abdurakhmonov

56'

K. Sarfo← R. Yuldashev

56'

T. Mavretic← N. Tukhtasinov

64'

S. Kodirkulov← U. Abdullaev

72'

T. Mavretic

74'

T. Ismoilov← R. Abdukhamidov

74'

D. Ortikboev← N. Abdikholikov

74'

B. Traore← Y. Lhery

75'

R. YagudinOwn goal

84'

U. Khoshimov← J. Jumaboev

85'

Lohan

90+4'

N. Stosic

90+5'

D. Ezhov← Lohan

90+3'

D. Nugumanov← A. Akhrorov

Xorazm

Dinamo

13

🥅

Yagudin

20

▼

Jumaboev

5

Dembele

6

Urozov

22

▼

Abdullaev

4

▼

Tukhtasin

21

Abdusalom

15

▼

Yuldashev

8

Amanov

10

Hojimirza

37

▼

33

22

25

5

15

⚽

Pirmukham

79

▼

Akhrorov

8

▼

Abdikholi

96

Sabino

13

▼

Lohan

94

▼

Abdukhami

10

▼

Lhery

Manager: Sergey Tokov

74'▲T. Ismoilov←▼R. Abdukhamidov

74'▲D. Ortikboev←▼N. Abdikholikov

74'▲B. Traore←▼Y. Lhery

90+5'▲D. Ezhov←▼Lohan

90+3'▲D. Nugumanov←▼A. Akhrorov

Xorazm substitutes

1Mukhammadjonov3Sultonov6Sultanmuradov7Ismoilov20Ezhov2Ortikboev17Nugumanov88Khusinov97Traore

Manager: Vadim Abramov

56'▲K. Khalilov←▼F. Abdurakhmonov

56'▲K. Sarfo←▼R. Yuldashev

56'▲T. Mavretic←▼N. Tukhtasinov

64'▲S. Kodirkulov←▼U. Abdullaev

84'▲U. Khoshimov←▼J. Jumaboev

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

27Nemanov7Kodirkulov11Khalilov16Salou19Brasil31SanchezSarfo14Mavretic99Khoshimov