Dinamo Samarqand 3–1 Xorazm: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Xorazm

K. Khalilov 76'

B. Oblakulov 51'

Ratinho 8'

T. Ismoilov 18'

10/30/2025

Super League · Round 27Dinamo Samarkand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand39%

×Draw27%

Xorazm34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchXorazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Xorazm

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 23 away

1.27

creates per match

1.04

1.29

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Xorazm

1.04

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Xorazm

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Xorazm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Xorazm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

66%

Dinamo Samarqand or Xorazm

73%

Draw or Xorazm

61%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

17%

Xorazm wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

14%

Xorazm 1+ goals

69%

Xorazm 2+ goals

33%

Xorazm 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

53%

Xorazm (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Xorazm away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Xorazm defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Xorazm attack 1.04 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

39%

level

27%

Xorazm scores more

34%

Dinamo Samarqand at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Ratinho

18'

T. Ismoilov

20'

M. Mukhammadzhonov← A. Potapov

23'

U. Hoshimov← A. Khozhimirzaev

46'

M. Stanojevic← D. Pletnev

46'

S. Kodirkulov← M. Makhamadzhonov

46'

B. Oblakulov←

49'

51'

53'

61'

68'

S. Abdullazhonov← I. Toshpulatov

68'

A. Saidkhonov← J. Azimov

74'

K. Khalilov← J. Abdusalomov

76'

K. Khalilov

83'

A. Otakhonov

87'

D. Ezhov← T. Ismoilov

87'

A. Akhrorov← R. Abdukhamidov

Dinamo

Xorazm

39

▼

88

6

15

2

27

▼

Toshpulat

8

Tursunkul

11

Iminov

9

▼

Azimov

94

▼

Abdukhami

7

⚽

▼

Ismoilov

27

Nemanov

77

▼

18

6

20

7

⚽

Ratinho

21

▼

Abdusalom

25

Urmonjono

55

▼

Pletnev

37

Abdurakhm

10

▼

Khozhimir

23'▲U. Hoshimov←▼A. Khozhimirzaev

46'▲M. Stanojevic←▼D. Pletnev

46'▲S. Kodirkulov←▼M. Makhamadzhonov

46'▲B. Oblakulov←▼—

74'▲K. Khalilov←▼J. Abdusalomov

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

88Stanojevic8Kodirkulov13Yagudin9Mirakhmadov22Abdullaev11Khalilov16Friday23Oblakulov99Hoshimov

20'▲M. Mukhammadzhonov←▼A. Potapov

68'▲S. Abdullazhonov←▼I. Toshpulatov

68'▲A. Saidkhonov←▼J. Azimov

87'▲D. Ezhov←▼T. Ismoilov

87'▲A. Akhrorov←▼R. Abdukhamidov

Xorazm substitutes

4Ibrokhimov3Sultonov30Olimov77Abdullazhonov12Kobulzhanov20Ezhov13Muhammadjonov79Akhrorov22Saidkhonov1Mukhammadzhonov

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm

Dinamo Samarqand beat Xorazm 3-1 in Super League on October 30, 2025.

Goals: Ratinho (8'), T. Ismoilov (18'), B. Oblakulov (51'), K. Khalilov (76').

The match was played at Dinamo Samarkand Stadium in Samarkand.

Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dinamo Samarqand vs Xorazm