Xinjiang Tianshan 0–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Xinjiang Tianshan

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wuhan Three Towns

9/4/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 9Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan15%

×Draw20%

Wuhan Three Towns65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xinjiang TianshanExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

2.06

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.86

Wuhan Three Towns

2.06

Wuhan Three Towns creates 140% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

1.08

creates per match

2.00

2.13

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.08

Wuhan Three Towns

2.00

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.13

Wuhan Three Towns

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw

35%

Xinjiang Tianshan or Wuhan Three Towns

80%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

85%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

5%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

58%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

21%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

6%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

87%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

61%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

19%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.86

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.00 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

15%

level

20%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

65%

Wuhan Three Towns at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff