Wuhan Three Towns 3–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Xinjiang Tianshan

Luo Senwen 41'

Ademilson 37'

Marcão 27'

9/22/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 13Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns71%

×Draw18%

Xinjiang Tianshan11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchXinjiang Tianshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.72

Wuhan Three Towns

2.22

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.72

Wuhan Three Towns creates 208% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 72 away

2.29

creates per match

0.63

0.82

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

2.29

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.63

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

0.82

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns+0.00on par

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

89%

Wuhan Three Towns or Xinjiang Tianshan

82%

Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan

29%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

47%

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

89%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

65%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

38%

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

51%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

16%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

87%

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 2.29 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.22

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

71%

level

18%

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

11%

Wuhan Three Towns at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

37'

41'

46'

46'

46'

46'

Eniwar Ekremjan← Mehmud Abdukerem

46'

Shi Jian← U. Tomovic

46'

Huang Wenzhuo← Zhuang Jiajie

64'

Nie Aoshuang← Zhang Xiaobin

66'

Kurban Ibrahim← Mijit Arapat

74'

Duan Yunzi← Marcão

78'

Li Jingrun← N. Spasojević

Wuhan

Xinjiang

32

Yuandong

6

▼

Arapat

14

▼

Abdukerem

21

Ablimit

9

▼

▼

38

37

29

▼

24

21

23

42

16

19

32

31

⚽

▼

Senwen

12

▼

Xiaobin

37

▼

Haoyang

7

⚽

▼

Ademilson

13

⚽

▼

Marcão

Manager: Pedro Morilla

46'▲Rong Hao←▼Luo Senwen

46'▲M. Ogbu←▼Ademilson

46'▲Xu Yue←▼Xu Haoyang

64'▲Nie Aoshuang←▼Zhang Xiaobin

74'▲Duan Yunzi←▼Marcão

Wuhan Three Towns substitutes

14Hao20Ogbu30Yue15Aoshuang6Yunzi1Fei2Fei3Qing5Heng9Cheng36Shuhao38Adiljan

Manager: Pei Encai

46'▲Eniwar Ekremjan←▼Mehmud Abdukerem

46'▲Shi Jian←▼U. Tomovic

46'▲Huang Wenzhuo←▼Zhuang Jiajie

66'▲Kurban Ibrahim←▼Mijit Arapat

78'▲Li Jingrun←▼N. Spasojević

Xinjiang Tianshan substitutes

3Ekremjan10Jian17Wenzhuo23Ibrahim18Jingrun2Hang5Alimjan7Abdulla11Danyar12Chao19Mehmud25Ghopur