Xinjiang Tianshan vs Shenyang Urban — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 75+ matches
Xinjiang Tianshan30%
Shenyang Urban45%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shenyang Urban creates 28% more chances
Season form · 75 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Xinjiang Tianshan ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches
Shenyang Urban away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.05 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23
Shenyang Urban attack 1.03 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.57
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Shenyang Urban at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Dalian TranscendenceXinjiang TianshanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Xinjiang Tianshan host Shenyang Urban on Sunday, 20 November 2022 at 06:30. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Xinjiang Tianshan vs Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban beat Xinjiang Tianshan 3-0 in League One on November 20, 2022.
Goals: Ž. Dimitrov (33', 62'), Liu Weicheng (45').
The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.3 in Tangshan.