Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shenyang Urban vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
11/8/2020League OneLeague One · Relegation Round - 5Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Shenyang Urban56%
×Draw23%
Xinjiang Tianshan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.79
Xinjiang Tianshan
1.00

Shenyang Urban creates 79% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.43
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.36
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
79%
Shenyang Urban or Xinjiang Tianshan
77%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
44%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
32%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
83%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
53%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
26%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
63%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
26%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
73%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 87 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.43 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.79

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
56%
level
23%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
21%

Shenyang Urban at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shenyang Urban 2–2 Xinjiang Tianshan

Shenyang Urban and Xinjiang Tianshan drew 2-2 in League One on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.