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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Shanghai Jiading — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
6/20/2022League OneLeague One · Round 4Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan36%
×Draw26%
Shanghai Jiading38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.30
Shanghai Jiading
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 62 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Shanghai Jiading
0.58

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.13
Shanghai Jiading
1.52

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
62%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Shanghai Jiading
74%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
64%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
16%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
73%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
37%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
14%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
74%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
39%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
48%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
36%
level
26%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
38%

Shanghai Jiading at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xinjiang Tianshan 2 – 1 Shanghai Jiading

Xinjiang Tianshan beat Shanghai Jiading 2-1 in League One on June 20, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3 in Dalian.