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Shanghai Jiading vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
7/9/2022League OneLeague One · Round 8Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shanghai Jiading53%
×Draw25%
Xinjiang Tianshan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.63
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.95

Shanghai Jiading creates 72% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.11
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.27
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
78%
Shanghai Jiading or Xinjiang Tianshan
75%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
47%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
28%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
80%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
48%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
22%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
61%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
71%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.63

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
53%
level
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
22%

Shanghai Jiading at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shanghai Jiading 1–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Shanghai Jiading beat Xinjiang Tianshan 1-0 in League One on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.