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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Qingdao Jonoon — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 6
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
11/28/2022League OneLeague One · Round 32Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan12%
×Draw18%
Qingdao Jonoon70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
0.83
Qingdao Jonoon
2.27

Qingdao Jonoon creates 173% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 17 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Qingdao Jonoon
2.41

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.13
Qingdao Jonoon
0.59

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
30%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Qingdao Jonoon
82%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
88%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
4%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
56%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
20%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
5%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
90%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
66%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
15%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 2.41, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.83

Qingdao Jonoon attack 2.41 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
12%
level
18%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
70%

Qingdao Jonoon at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xinjiang Tianshan vs Qingdao Jonoon

Qingdao Jonoon beat Xinjiang Tianshan 7-1 in League One on November 28, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.