Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Qingdao Jonoon vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
11/5/2022League OneLeague One · Round 27Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon70%
×Draw19%
Xinjiang Tianshan11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
2.13
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.72

Qingdao Jonoon creates 196% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 72 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
2.12
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
0.82
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
89%
Qingdao Jonoon or Xinjiang Tianshan
81%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
30%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
45%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
88%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
63%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
35%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
51%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
16%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
86%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 2.12 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.13

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
70%
level
19%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
11%

Qingdao Jonoon at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qingdao Jonoon 5 – 1 Xinjiang Tianshan

Qingdao Jonoon beat Xinjiang Tianshan 5-1 in League One on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Tangshan Nanhu City Football Training Base Field No.1 in Tangshan.