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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Meizhou Kejia — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
7/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 17Xinjiang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan26%
×Draw23%
Meizhou Kejia51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.23
Meizhou Kejia
1.80

Meizhou Kejia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 62 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Meizhou Kejia
1.50

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.11
Meizhou Kejia
1.37

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
49%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Meizhou Kejia
77%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
74%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
11%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
71%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
35%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
13%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
83%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
54%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
34%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.50 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
26%
level
23%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
51%

Meizhou Kejia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Xinjiang Tianshan 2–0 Meizhou Kejia

Xinjiang Tianshan beat Meizhou Kejia 2-0 in League One on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Xinjiang Stadium in Urumqi.