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Meizhou Kejia vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
3/16/2019League OneLeague One · Round 2Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Meizhou Kejia61%
×Draw21%
Xinjiang Tianshan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.98
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.96

Meizhou Kejia creates 106% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 72 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.82
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.28
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
82%
Meizhou Kejia or Xinjiang Tianshan
79%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
39%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
37%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
86%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
59%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
31%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
62%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
77%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.82 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.98

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
61%
level
21%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
18%

Meizhou Kejia at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Meizhou Kejia 4–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Meizhou Kejia beat Xinjiang Tianshan 4-0 in League One on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.