Xinjiang Tianshan 0–2 Hangzhou Greentown

Xinjiang Tianshan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hangzhou Greentown

5/15/2021

League One · Round 5Wuhua People's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan21%

×Draw22%

Hangzhou Greentown56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xinjiang TianshanExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.91

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.09

Hangzhou Greentown

1.91

Hangzhou Greentown creates 75% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 56 away

1.05

creates per match

1.71

2.11

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.05

Hangzhou Greentown

1.71

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.11

Hangzhou Greentown

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw

44%

Xinjiang Tianshan or Hangzhou Greentown

78%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

79%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

8%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

66%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

30%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

10%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

85%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

57%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

28%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.05 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.71 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

21%

level

22%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

56%

Hangzhou Greentown at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff