Hangzhou Greentown 1–0 Xinjiang Tianshan

Hangzhou Greentown

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xinjiang Tianshan

5/18/2019

League One · Round 10Yellow Dragon Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown65%

×Draw20%

Xinjiang Tianshan15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hangzhou GreentownExpected goals in this matchXinjiang Tianshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.83

Hangzhou Greentown

2.02

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.83

Hangzhou Greentown creates 143% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 72 away

1.89

creates per match

0.63

1.04

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.89

Xinjiang Tianshan

0.63

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown

1.04

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw

85%

Hangzhou Greentown or Xinjiang Tianshan

80%

Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan

35%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

40%

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

87%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

60%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

33%

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

56%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

20%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

82%

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.02

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

65%

level

20%

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

15%

Hangzhou Greentown at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff