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Xi'an Ronghai vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Xi'an Ronghai
Xi'an Ronghai
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
10/19/2024League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 10Yan'an Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Xi'an Ronghai49%
×Draw26%
Quanzhou Yassin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xi'an Ronghai
1.52
Quanzhou Yassin
1.02

Xi'an Ronghai creates 49% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 47 away

creates per match

Xi'an Ronghai
1.25
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Xi'an Ronghai
1.28
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Xi'an Ronghai+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xi'an Ronghai ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Xi'an Ronghai or draw
75%
Xi'an Ronghai or Quanzhou Yassin
74%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
51%

Winning margin

Xi'an Ronghai wins by 2+
25%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Xi'an Ronghai 1+ goals
78%
Xi'an Ronghai 2+ goals
45%
Xi'an Ronghai 3+ goals
20%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
64%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
27%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Xi'an Ronghai (draw refunded)
66%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xi'an Ronghai at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xi'an Ronghai attack 1.25 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Xi'an Ronghai defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Xi'an Ronghai scores more
49%
level
26%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
25%

Xi'an Ronghai at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Xi'an Ronghai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xi'an Ronghai vs Quanzhou Yassin

Xi'an Ronghai beat Quanzhou Yassin 3-1 in League Two on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Yan'an Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Yan'an.