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Quanzhou Yassin vs Xi'an Ronghai — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Xi'an Ronghai
Xi'an Ronghai
9/15/2024League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 5Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin40%
×Draw28%
Xi'an Ronghai31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.23
Xi'an Ronghai
1.05

Quanzhou Yassin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Xi'an Ronghai
0.73

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Xi'an Ronghai
1.57

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Xi'an Ronghai+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Xi'an Ronghai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
69%
Quanzhou Yassin or Xi'an Ronghai
72%
Draw or Xi'an Ronghai
60%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
18%
Xi'an Ronghai wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
71%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
35%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
13%
Xi'an Ronghai 1+ goals
65%
Xi'an Ronghai 2+ goals
28%
Xi'an Ronghai 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
56%
Xi'an Ronghai (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Xi'an Ronghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Xi'an Ronghai defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Xi'an Ronghai attack 0.73 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
40%
level
28%
Xi'an Ronghai scores more
31%

Quanzhou Yassin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs Xi'an Ronghai

Quanzhou Yassin and Xi'an Ronghai drew 0-0 in League Two on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.