Xerez 1–0 San Roque Lepe: Result & Stats

Xerez

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Roque Lepe

Alex Colorado 18'

5/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio de La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Xerez51%

×Draw28%

San Roque Lepe21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XerezExpected goals in this matchSan Roque Lepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.79

Xerez

1.39

San Roque Lepe

0.79

Xerez creates 76% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

1.49

creates per match

0.97

0.61

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Xerez

1.49

San Roque Lepe

0.97

allows per match

Xerez

0.61

San Roque Lepe

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par

San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

San Roque Lepe →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Xerez or draw

79%

Xerez or San Roque Lepe

72%

Draw or San Roque Lepe

49%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+

25%

San Roque Lepe wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals

75%

Xerez 2+ goals

40%

Xerez 3+ goals

16%

San Roque Lepe 1+ goals

55%

San Roque Lepe 2+ goals

19%

San Roque Lepe 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)

71%

San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Xerez scores more

51%

level

28%

San Roque Lepe scores more

21%

Xerez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Alex Colorado

34'

Carlos Calvo← Pato Ruz

43'

Pablo Ortíz← Beke

46'

Fernandito← J. Rydstrand

68'

Juanca← Alex Colorado

68'

Christian Orihuela← Lolo Garrido

70'

Tommy Montenegro← Juanjo Mateos

77'

Fran Medina← Miguel Reina

77'

Borja Jiménez← Nané García

80'

R. Flueraş← Chuma

80'

Javi Forján← Manuel Palacios

Xerez

San

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Manager: Esteban Vigo

34'▲Carlos Calvo←▼Pato Ruz

68'▲Juanca←▼Alex Colorado

68'▲Christian Orihuela←▼Lolo Garrido

80'▲R. Flueraş←▼Chuma

80'▲Javi Forján←▼Manuel Palacios

Xerez substitutes

CalvoJuancaOrihuelaFlueraşForján

Manager: Antonio

43'▲Pablo Ortíz←▼Beke

46'▲Fernandito←▼J. Rydstrand

70'▲Tommy Montenegro←▼Juanjo Mateos

77'▲Fran Medina←▼Miguel Reina

77'▲Borja Jiménez←▼Nané García

San Roque Lepe substitutes

OrtízFernanditoMontenegroMedinaJiménez