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Xerez vs San Roque Lepe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez
Xerez
CANC
22:00
San Roque Lepe
San Roque Lepe
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 36Estadio de La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Xerez51%
×Draw28%
San Roque Lepe21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez
1.39
San Roque Lepe
0.79

Xerez creates 76% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

creates per match

Xerez
1.49
San Roque Lepe
0.97

allows per match

Xerez
0.61
San Roque Lepe
1.28

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par
San Roque Lepe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

San Roque Lepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Xerez or draw
79%
Xerez or San Roque Lepe
72%
Draw or San Roque Lepe
49%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+
25%
San Roque Lepe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals
75%
Xerez 2+ goals
40%
Xerez 3+ goals
16%
San Roque Lepe 1+ goals
55%
San Roque Lepe 2+ goals
19%
San Roque Lepe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)
71%
San Roque Lepe (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

San Roque Lepe away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.28 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + San Roque Lepe defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

San Roque Lepe attack 0.97 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Xerez scores more
51%
level
28%
San Roque Lepe scores more
21%

Xerez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez vs San Roque Lepe — Match Preview

Xerez face San Roque Lepe on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Xerez host San Roque Lepe at Estadio de La Juventud.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.