Xerez 1–3 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Xerez

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Real Betis II

9/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio de La Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Xerez39%

×Draw27%

Real Betis II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XerezExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.18

Xerez

1.27

Real Betis II

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 16 away

1.49

creates per match

1.75

0.61

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Xerez

1.49

Real Betis II

1.75

allows per match

Xerez

0.61

Real Betis II

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

Real Betis II →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Xerez or draw

66%

Xerez or Real Betis II

73%

Draw or Real Betis II

61%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+

17%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals

72%

Xerez 2+ goals

36%

Xerez 3+ goals

14%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

69%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

33%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)

53%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + Real Betis II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Betis II attack 1.75 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Xerez scores more

39%

level

27%

Real Betis II scores more

34%

Xerez at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff