Real Betis II 3–0 Xerez: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xerez

Raúl García 71'

Álex Meléndez 54'

Mizzian 23'

2/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Betis II63%

×Draw20%

Xerez17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchXerez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.99

Real Betis II

2.12

Xerez

0.99

Real Betis II creates 114% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 75 away

3.07

creates per match

1.20

0.79

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Real Betis II

3.07

Xerez

1.20

allows per match

Real Betis II

0.79

Xerez

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Xerez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Xerez →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

83%

Real Betis II or Xerez

80%

Draw or Xerez

37%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

39%

Xerez wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

88%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

62%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

35%

Xerez 1+ goals

63%

Xerez 2+ goals

26%

Xerez 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

79%

Xerez (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Xerez away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 3.07 + Xerez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.12

Xerez attack 1.20 + Real Betis II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Real Betis II scores more

63%

level

20%

Xerez scores more

17%

Real Betis II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Mizzian

54'

David Ramos← Álex Meléndez

54'

Álex Meléndez

60'

Ricky← Cristian Tejero

69'

Raúl García← Mizzian

70'

Yeray← Iván Romero

71'

Raúl García

79'

Ángel Baena← Roberto González

80'

Luismi← K. Bemanga

Real

Xerez

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Meléndez

▼

González

⚽

▼

Mizzian

Rodri

Calderón

Manager: Manel Ruano

54'▲David Ramos←▼Álex Meléndez

69'▲Raúl García←▼Mizzian

79'▲Ángel Baena←▼Roberto González

Real Betis II substitutes

RamosGarcíaBaena

Manager: Juan Carlos

60'▲Ricky←▼Cristian Tejero

70'▲Yeray←▼Iván Romero

80'▲Luismi←▼K. Bemanga

Xerez substitutes

RickyYerayLuismi