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Xerez vs Ayamonte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez
Xerez
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Ayamonte
Ayamonte
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Xerez56%
×Draw26%
Ayamonte18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez
1.51
Ayamonte
0.71

Xerez creates 113% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 32 away

creates per match

Xerez
1.49
Ayamonte
0.81

allows per match

Xerez
0.61
Ayamonte
1.53

finishing

Xerez+0.00on par
Ayamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez ↓

Ayamonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Xerez or draw
82%
Xerez or Ayamonte
74%
Draw or Ayamonte
44%

Winning margin

Xerez wins by 2+
29%
Ayamonte wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Xerez 1+ goals
78%
Xerez 2+ goals
44%
Xerez 3+ goals
19%
Ayamonte 1+ goals
51%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
16%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Xerez (draw refunded)
76%
Ayamonte (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.61 · 75 matches

Ayamonte away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez attack 1.49 + Ayamonte defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ayamonte attack 0.81 + Xerez defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Xerez scores more
56%
level
26%
Ayamonte scores more
18%

Xerez at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xerez vs Ayamonte

Xerez beat Ayamonte 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.