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Ayamonte vs Xerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ayamonte
Ayamonte
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Xerez
Xerez
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayamonte35%
×Draw28%
Xerez38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayamonte
1.17
Xerez
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ayamonte
1.16
Xerez
1.20

allows per match

Ayamonte
1.28
Xerez
1.17

finishing

Ayamonte+0.00on par
Xerez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayamonte ↓

Xerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ayamonte or draw
62%
Ayamonte or Xerez
72%
Draw or Xerez
65%

Winning margin

Ayamonte wins by 2+
14%
Xerez wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ayamonte 1+ goals
69%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
33%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
11%
Xerez 1+ goals
71%
Xerez 2+ goals
35%
Xerez 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ayamonte (draw refunded)
48%
Xerez (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayamonte at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Xerez away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayamonte attack 1.16 + Xerez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Xerez attack 1.20 + Ayamonte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ayamonte scores more
35%
level
28%
Xerez scores more
38%

Xerez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Xerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ayamonte vs Xerez

Ayamonte and Xerez drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte in Ayamonte.