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Xerez Deportivo vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
2/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Xerez Deportivo65%
×Draw22%
Los Barrios13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xerez Deportivo
1.84
Los Barrios
0.67

Xerez Deportivo creates 175% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo
1.68
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo
0.43
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw
87%
Xerez Deportivo or Los Barrios
78%
Draw or Los Barrios
35%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
39%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
84%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
55%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
28%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
49%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
15%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
83%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more
65%
level
22%
Los Barrios scores more
13%

Xerez Deportivo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo 1 – 0 Los Barrios

Xerez Deportivo beat Los Barrios 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.