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Los Barrios vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Los Barrios30%
×Draw29%
Xerez Deportivo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
0.99
Xerez Deportivo
1.21

Xerez Deportivo creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 43 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
59%
Los Barrios or Xerez Deportivo
71%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
70%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
11%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
63%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
26%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
8%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
70%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
34%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
42%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Los Barrios scores more
30%
level
29%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
41%

Xerez Deportivo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Los Barrios vs Xerez Deportivo

Xerez Deportivo beat Los Barrios 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.