Xerez Deportivo vs Ceuta: Preview & Prediction

Xerez Deportivo

CANC

00:00

Ceuta

4/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Xerez Deportivo44%

×Draw31%

Ceuta25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xerez DeportivoExpected goals in this matchCeuta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.78

Xerez Deportivo

1.14

Ceuta

0.78

Xerez Deportivo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

1.68

creates per match

1.13

0.43

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo

1.68

Ceuta

1.13

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo

0.43

Ceuta

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Ceuta →

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw

75%

Xerez Deportivo or Ceuta

69%

Draw or Ceuta

56%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

19%

Ceuta wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

68%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

32%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

11%

Ceuta 1+ goals

54%

Ceuta 2+ goals

18%

Ceuta 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

64%

Ceuta (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more

44%

level

31%

Ceuta scores more

25%

Xerez Deportivo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Xerez Deportivo vs Ceuta — Match Preview

Xerez Deportivo face Ceuta on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Xerez Deportivo host Ceuta at Estadio Municipal de Chapín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Xerez Deportivo vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Xerez Deportivo vs Ceuta — Match Preview