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Ceuta vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ceuta
Ceuta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta52%
×Draw24%
Xerez Deportivo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceuta
1.73
Xerez Deportivo
1.10

Ceuta creates 57% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ceuta
2.40
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Ceuta
0.87
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw
76%
Ceuta or Xerez Deportivo
76%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
48%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+
28%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals
82%
Ceuta 2+ goals
52%
Ceuta 3+ goals
25%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
67%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
30%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)
68%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.73

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ceuta scores more
52%
level
24%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
24%

Ceuta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ceuta 0–1 Xerez Deportivo

Xerez Deportivo beat Ceuta 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.