Xerez Deportivo 1–0 Ayamonte: Result & Stats

Xerez Deportivo

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ayamonte

10/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 6Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Xerez Deportivo61%

×Draw25%

Ayamonte14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xerez DeportivoExpected goals in this matchAyamonte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.62

Xerez Deportivo

1.60

Ayamonte

0.62

Xerez Deportivo creates 158% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

1.68

creates per match

0.81

0.43

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo

1.68

Ayamonte

0.81

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo

0.43

Ayamonte

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Ayamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Ayamonte →

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw

86%

Xerez Deportivo or Ayamonte

75%

Draw or Ayamonte

39%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

34%

Ayamonte wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

80%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

47%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

22%

Ayamonte 1+ goals

46%

Ayamonte 2+ goals

13%

Ayamonte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

81%

Ayamonte (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Ayamonte away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Ayamonte defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ayamonte attack 0.81 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more

61%

level

25%

Ayamonte scores more

14%

Xerez Deportivo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xerez Deportivo vs Ayamonte

Xerez Deportivo beat Ayamonte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.

Xerez Deportivo vs Ayamonte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Xerez Deportivo vs Ayamonte