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Ayamonte vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ayamonte
Ayamonte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 23Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ayamonte31%
×Draw27%
Xerez Deportivo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayamonte
1.10
Xerez Deportivo
1.31

Xerez Deportivo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ayamonte
1.16
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Ayamonte
1.28
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Ayamonte+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayamonte ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ayamonte or draw
59%
Ayamonte or Xerez Deportivo
73%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
69%

Winning margin

Ayamonte wins by 2+
12%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ayamonte 1+ goals
67%
Ayamonte 2+ goals
30%
Ayamonte 3+ goals
10%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
73%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
38%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ayamonte (draw refunded)
43%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayamonte at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayamonte attack 1.16 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Ayamonte defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ayamonte scores more
31%
level
27%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
41%

Xerez Deportivo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ayamonte 1–1 Xerez Deportivo

Ayamonte and Xerez Deportivo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Ayamonte in Ayamonte.