Xerez Deportivo 3–0 Atlético Espeleño

Xerez Deportivo

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Espeleño

3/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 26Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Xerez Deportivo64%

×Draw22%

Atlético Espeleño14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xerez DeportivoExpected goals in this matchAtlético Espeleño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.68

Xerez Deportivo

1.79

Atlético Espeleño

0.68

Xerez Deportivo creates 163% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 49 away

1.68

creates per match

0.92

0.43

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo

1.68

Atlético Espeleño

0.92

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo

0.43

Atlético Espeleño

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Atlético Espeleño →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw

86%

Xerez Deportivo or Atlético Espeleño

78%

Draw or Atlético Espeleño

36%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

37%

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

83%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

53%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

26%

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals

49%

Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals

15%

Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

82%

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more

64%

level

22%

Atlético Espeleño scores more

14%

Xerez Deportivo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xerez Deportivo vs Atlético Espeleño

Xerez Deportivo beat Atlético Espeleño 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín in Jerez de la Frontera.

Xerez Deportivo vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Xerez Deportivo vs Atlético Espeleño