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Atlético Espeleño vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Atlético Espeleño35%
×Draw27%
Xerez Deportivo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Espeleño
1.20
Xerez Deportivo
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 43 away

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.35
Xerez Deportivo
1.33

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño
1.16
Xerez Deportivo
1.05

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw
62%
Atlético Espeleño or Xerez Deportivo
73%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
15%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
12%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
71%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
36%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
48%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more
35%
level
27%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
38%

Xerez Deportivo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Espeleño 1 – 0 Xerez Deportivo

Atlético Espeleño beat Xerez Deportivo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.