Xerez Deportivo 0–1 Arcos: Result & Stats

Xerez Deportivo

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arcos

1/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Municipal de Chapín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Xerez Deportivo64%

×Draw24%

Arcos12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xerez DeportivoExpected goals in this matchArcos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.57

Xerez Deportivo

1.65

Arcos

0.57

Xerez Deportivo creates 189% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 28 away

1.68

creates per match

0.71

0.43

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Xerez Deportivo

1.68

Arcos

0.71

allows per match

Xerez Deportivo

0.43

Arcos

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xerez Deportivo ↓

Arcos →

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Xerez Deportivo or draw

88%

Xerez Deportivo or Arcos

76%

Draw or Arcos

36%

Winning margin

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

36%

Arcos wins by 2+

Team goals

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

81%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

49%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

23%

Arcos 1+ goals

43%

Arcos 2+ goals

11%

Arcos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

84%

Arcos (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Xerez Deportivo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.43 · 44 matches

Arcos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.68 + Arcos defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.65

Arcos attack 0.71 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Xerez Deportivo scores more

64%

level

24%

Arcos scores more

12%

Xerez Deportivo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff